My other article Winning Systems addresses the fact that there is no long-term craps “winning strategy” for the player. A player can’t gain an advantage over the house by using any combination or amount of bets. Period. But I still see article after article describing various methods that “craps pros” use to beat the house. It irritates me that some of these authors are considered craps experts by the gambling industry. It is irritating to me when I read something written by a respected craps expert, but in reality, he spreads false hope rather than facts. It is frustrating to know that the Industry recognizes and celebrates these skilled and knowledgeable players. These authors aren’t experts as the Industry claims them to be or that they are selling manure for a quick buck. All it boils down to is money. False hopes and fantasies of making it big sell magazines and books. It’s not worth the effort to make the game loser-friendly. B.S. Reality doesn’t sell, but B.S.
You can search the Internet for craps articles to find tons. There are some factual articles and others that are full of bull. Some are unknown; others are industry leaders with multiple book titles and regularly write for newsletters and magazines. While some authors are honest and correct in explaining game facts, others do not. Too often, however, so-called experts seem to have no shame in spreading false hopes.
A series of articles written by a well-known author, with several books in print and many other writing credits, was one of the things I had just finished. He discusses using bizarre systems to profit from almost all bets, even those with high house advantage. None of these systems will guarantee long-term wins for the player. In my article, Variance and distribution variance are the only things that allow a player to win short-term. Let’s look at a winning system that pros use to make money: Place bets on the 6 or 8.
The author suggests you place a bet on the 6-8 and 8 and then wait for one to hit. Once they do, turn them off. A 7 is more likely than a 6 or 8. If you get five rolls without hitting a 6, 8, or 7, and no 7s, then place both bets on the seven because it is likely to hit. Place the 6 or 8 again after a seven is rolled. The author concludes his article with a false hope that the system will make money for players if they are disciplined and stick to the rules without placing any other bets.
The reliance on “Gambler’s Fallacy,” which I wrote about in my article, The Gambler’s Fallacy, is the first sign that the author is not the expert he claims to be. If a seven doesn’t appear in five rolls, or if a 6 and 8 show first, this system considers it “due” for it to hit. This is absurd, as the chances of any number appearing on the next roll, regardless of whether it hasn’t shown up after five rolls or a million, are equal. Because the probabilities of any number appearing on your next registration never change, it doesn’t matter how many times you switch off your Place bets. They can be left on all the time or turned off every roll. The odds of succeeding are the same regardless of what you do. Let’s look at the math involved in placing bets on the 6 and 8.
The results of many rolls tend to look like a perfect distribution. Assuming an ideal distribution of 36 rolls, we expect a 7 to show up six times, a 6 five times, and eight times. The odds of any number emerging on the next roll are constant, so your chances of placing Place bets winning or losing are the same regardless of whether they are left on continuously or if you turn them off randomly.
Let’s say you wager $6 on the six and $6 on 8 to win $12. If there is a perfect distribution, the six appear five times on 36 rolls. You win $35 (5x $7 = $35). You will win $35 (5×7 = $35) if the 8 appears five times in each of those 36 rolls. In a perfect distribution of 36 rolls, you can win $70 each time you place a chance on the 6 or 8 for $6 each. Note: Place betting on 6 or 8 places at 7:6. Which Means that you will win $7 for $6.
On six of the 36 rolls, however, a 7 will be visible and you’ll lose $72 ($6 for the 6 and $6 for the 8 = $12, then $12 x 6 = $72).
This system has negative expectations. You lose $2 on every 36 rolls.
The low house advantage of Place 6 and Place 8 bets makes this a perfect system for the player. This system is not guaranteed to be successful long-term. It is statistically impossible. This means that, despite claims that the system will be profitable, it is statistically impossible to make long-term profits.
The inquiry you need to ask is: If this system is based on the Gambler’s Fallacy and if it is statistically proven to result from a player losing over the long-term, then why is this craps expert giving me such bull manure, claiming that it will be very profitable? Is the answer related to selling books or articles? I believe I know that that’s the question, and you may, too.
Be smart. Be smart. Do not fall for the bogus claims that you have winning systems or crazy dice-setting strategies. Find out the secrets to winning at craps.
You now know what to do! Learn how to play craps correctly.
